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🦋 Affective Forecasting

I sent a letter to the New York Times Magazine today; in case they do not print it, here it is with a link to the article I'm referencing. (Note, the link requires registration and will in any case only be good for a couple of weeks.)

The Futile Pursuit of Happiness

Dear Sirs:

Jon Gertner's article on "affective forecasting" is nothing short of bizarre. His gee-whiz attitude throughout culminates near the end when he says, "After talking with both men, I found it hard not to wonder about my own predictions at every turn." This is the very essence of the reflective life which people have been trying for millennia to lead, with varying rates of success. I don't want to suggest that there is nothing of interest in Gilbert and Loewenstein's work; but Gertner's presentation of that work is founded on a problematic premise, that people believe the gratification of their immediate desires will lead to long-term happiness. I do not think this belief is as prevalent as Gertner would have us believe. If his recent experience while ogling the new car is truly the first time he has ever questioned the efficacy of such gratification, then I feel some pity for him for coming to it so late but hope he will make good use of his new self-knowledge.

Regards,
Jeremy Osner
South Orange, NJ

Here are links to some articles by Gilbert:

• The Future Is Now: Temporal Correction in Affective Forecasting
• Focalism: A Source of Durability Bias in Affective Forecasting
• Decisions and Revisions: The Affective Forecasting of Changeable Outcomes

posted afternoon of Tuesday, September 9th, 2003

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